Congratulations to President-elect Muhammadu Buhari and the APC on wining the mandate to lead the nation for the next parliament. The APC ran a very good campaign, and deserve its victory. Whilst I rooted for Prof Sonaiya of Kowa, I very much also wanted President Jonathan and the PDP to lose, so I’m satisfied with 50% victory. It is an incredibly proud moment to be Nigerian.

Now that the presidential election has concluded, I am sure the President-elect and his VP know that this is just the beginning. The task and challenge ahead are incredibly considerable, difficult decisions have to be made. I could have rooted for APCs top ticket during this election, but I, like many other Nigerians, have reservations about some characters/persons in or around the highest decision making body of the campaign and party.

President-elect Buhari’s first cabinet will either allay or confirm these fears. I hope he picks his cabinet purely on merit and not on political power play, negotiation or payback. Further, he will need to brush up on his understanding of economics and theories because his personal incorruptibility wouldn’t be enough as an excuse this time, he will need to make sure unscrupulous people can’t pull one on him with dodgy policies. I hope and pray that President Buhari does well and delivers on at least institutionalising anti-corruption, security, agriculture, energy and enabling INEC. I am keenly looking forward to him revealing the composition of his first cabinet, and what target he’ll set for his team for their first 100 days in office.

The fact that Nigerians have voted out an incumbent at the federal level is great for our democracy. Now that we’ve confirmed we can do it, the next step has to be making it easier for credible people to contest elections without the sponsorship of a godfather. We need to attack godfatherism in our politics. Whilst Ambode may be a better candidate, it is clear that Bode George and Seye Ogunlewe are an encumbrance to Jimi Agbaje. Furthermore, if we want independent candidacy to be introduced into our politics then we need to deal with this godfatherism phenomenon. Further, dealing with the effect of slush funds in our politics goes hand in hand with reducing the necessity for godfathers. We have to get to a point where majority of campaign financing comes from ordinary citizen’s donations rather than cabals or vested interests.

Being more open-minded to parties such as Kowa is one of the ways ordinary Nigerians can help with reducing godfatherism and slush funds. Those parties can’t run against the APC/PDP on money, so they have to be really strong on ideologies to differentiate themselves and hope that that is enough to swing voter apathy their way. Ideological politics has to be encouraged by ordinary Nigerians and there is no better or cheaper way of doing this other than supporting parties running more on ideology and less with slush funds.

One of the big manifesto points for Kowa is improving the quality and structure of our education. Kowa’s ideology on education is such that education should be used as a tool for solving societal problems not just for collecting name-suffixes. For example, rather than the “establishing 12 new federal universities in the North palliative” of the Jonathan government, Kowa will first look at the challenges of the North, then seek to establish universities or other institutions that will provide the kind of education that will help solve or improve the Northern economy. Universities focused on producing agricultural specialist, nurses or other healthcare professionals etc is what will be sought to be established. This approach wouldn’t only be qualitative, it will also benefit from being embraced quicker by the locals as direct linkages between problems and solutions will be clear as the approach will be akin to teaching how to fish rather than handing them fishes to eat.

In addition, I hope that by 2019 the Buhari government would have supported our electoral process to an extent that an end to end electronic voting will be possible i.e. not just accreditation, but voting itself will be electronic. INEC should be encouraged to register eligible voters over the next four years rather than at specific windows. The fact that just over half of the 18% of Nigerian’s that voted gave President-elect Buhari his mandate is clearly not good enough. If we can go one step further and enable diaspora Nigerians also to vote, then we will know that we have truly arrived as a democratic nation.

Unseating an incumbent is a great feat indeed, but taking our foot off the gas now will be a great disservice not just to President-elect Buhari but also to us. With governance being a continuum, our criticism of President Jonathan’s government should be transferred to the Buhari led one – of course within reason. We cannot afford to do anything less. As soon as the election season concludes, Nigerians that are non-partisan need to do their best to encourage PDP to be a strong opposition. Doing anything other than that will be tantamount to cutting off our nose to spite our face. The next four years will be challenging but pretty interesting.

God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Imagine if most of our politicians are like Atiku, that is, they have the same entrepreneurial drive as he does. It isn’t that we won’t have challenges, it is more likely that we will have a good kind of challenge; as for one we will have less unemployment and with that comes less income inequality. We would have moved on from the challenge of creating wealth to redistributing and reducing wealth/income inequality – an infinitely better problem than what we have on our hands today.

The issue here isn’t that cabal exists or that having more Atiku type politicians will create a different kind of lobbyist problem. Lobbyist groups are a global phenomenon, a cost of capitalism. The utopia isn’t eradicating corruption but reducing its mismanagement and making sure incidences of its occurrence are in favour of the state more often than not. Consider the US, with the influence and control the NRA that gun lobbyist group (or any other powerful lobbyist group) have over America and American politics. The first thing this lobbyist group hold as fundamental is that a strong and successful American economy is critical to their success. The implication of this is that they are always willing to negotiate the extent of their influence if holding on to it will compromise the American economy especially relative to other world superpowers. The way to think about it is this; i) they want America to have a strong military and sovereignty ii) they want America to have a “too much money” problem i.e. a strong economy, iii) they want to be able to influence how that money is shared iv) they recognise some income equality is necessary so they don’t have a domestic problem that could compromise the strength of the economy.

What makes the American cabal successful is that the opportunity to be successful is open to anyone and everyone. Unless absolute and ultimate power is being discussed, anyone can become a millionaire or billionaire – the system is fair to all – you don’t have to come from a powerful family (Eg Steve Jobs – Apple, Mark Zuckerberg – Facebook, Floyd Mayweather – Boxer, Dr Dre & JayZ- Entertainer, Michael Jordan – Sports, Bill Gates – Microsoft, Chamillionaire – Entertainer cum venture capitalist, Evan Spiegel – Snapchat, Jacob Arabo – Jeweller, Michael Dell – Dell PCs, Sam Walton – WalMart – are they all from influential families?). Even more importantly the cost of a decent standard of living isn’t astronomically high.

Contrast the above to the Nigerian cabals and politicians and you can see where we‘re failing ourselves. First, our military have decimated and compromised themselves and our politicians have been quite happy to maintain the trend. Second, our cabals are quite happy to sacrifice the Nigerian economy so long as their buck is assured. Thirdly, unless you are from an influential family or have a benefactor that is from an influential family then access to (or even opportunity to have a go) real wealth is beyond you. Fourthly, to have a decent standard of living, you to have to be a mini local government. We clearly have a structural problem and an unsustainable economic system.

We know that some if not most of our politicians are evidently corrupt. We know how much they appropriate to themselves. For example, OurNASS members are the best paid in the world – (shocking, I know) – but what do they spend all of that largesse on? Have any of them established businesses to take advantage of our inefficient market where supernormal profits is almost a given? We know it is difficult for SMEs to gain access to finance. So did any of the wealthy OurNASS politicians come together to form a private equity firm or venture capital to finance SMEs and make super profits? The inadequacy of housing units in Nigeria is known to most, but have our politicians come together to form a low cost property development company and profit from the property sector?

Let’s imagine that the members of OurNASS commit say 10% of the annual N150b they get to entrepreneurial use by pooling resources and establishing companies, that is N15b annually. With that amount of equity, they could easily obtain a long term financing facility from banks that matches the equity committed to business – this could easily raise up to N120b over the current parliament. Now imagine how that sort of cash influx could have ignited our property and construction sector, the number of job it would have created, the attendant wealth, the various value added service firms that will spring up or even the securitisation banks could have generated to create a vibrant mortgage market as houses become affordable. Now extend this to other politicians at state level and the famous security votes of executive governors. Let’s not even talk about the monumental failure of our financial intermediaries to create products that should be tapping into and lobbying to monetise this source of capital. We know that our politicians obtain loans, what do they use these loans for? Is there any economic evidence for which they’ve put these loans to use?

In Yoruba, the only word to describe our politicians is ‘apa’ meaning waster, wastrel, squanderer (pick your choose x_x). How can you have access to free cash, be in charge of creating enabling laws, have little to no competition from other sources of business capital and yet the best you and your advisers could come up with is stash money abroad, buy ‘luxurious’ properties at over-inflated prices and live ‘babyboy’ lives as the locals call it?

It doesn’t matter whether you support APC or PDP, both parties in equal measure produce absolutely useless politicians. None of them can run a broom producing business successfully, yet we are to somehow trust them to run a whole country? Stop yourself from gobbling their rhetoric for a moment, where is the evidence that they can create a system that can generate wealth sustainably and more importantly equitably? I saw an APC member (early to mid 30s guy) tweet recently that the reason why he’s voting for change is so that his kids will have access to quality education and healthcare in the future. Presumably kids in the states currently governed by APC are already enjoying this and it’s only fair APC rolls it out to the rest of the country? Or APC needs to control the federal government before they can deliver this democracy dividend? If that’s the case, does that not confirm we have a fundamental problem on our hands that without federal control a party can’t do much even at state level?

This campaign season has seen our politicians (APC and PDP alike) promise that they’ll reduce poverty and unemployment. The truth is, they’ve always had the capital and the constitutional backing to do so yet they haven’t. So why are you believing them now?

For an elected official to successfully deliver on good governance, that official needs to either be both a good technocrat as well as a good politician or failing that be able to assemble a good team of technocrats and have demonstrable evidence of being able to lead such a team to delivering good governance. The need to be a good technocrat is necessary so that issues can be understood, appropriate policies formulated, whilst the need to be a good politician will become necessary when political will is needed to implement programs especially when vested interests lobby to the contrary.

There seems to be a dearth of people in our politics with an above average strength as good politicians as well as technocrats. We seem to produce politicians that have strength in one and weakness in the other. Babatunde Fashola appears to be a good technocrat but weak at playing politics. Donald Duke, Kayode Fayemi, Nasir El-Rufai, Nuhu Ribadu etc all appear to fall into the same category as the outgoing governor of Lagos. These are governors/ex ministers that whilst they were delivering some form of good governance couldn’t replicate the same success on the political side so their public careers got truncated – too early. Fashola on the other hand, despite his weakness in playing politics, managed to retain the support of Asiwaju Tinubu by the skin of his teeth otherwise he too would have gone the way of other technocrats. There are others like Adams Oshiomole, Rochas Okorocha, Rotimi Amaechi etc that I find difficult to categorise as having above average strength on either side as they seem to be drifting from one side to the other on average terms at best.

For all of Asiwaju’s faults, he seems to be one of the very few people in politics that can be comfortable whether in the midst of pure politicians or technocrats. This fundamentally is the basis of his on going relevance as a public servant. He understands both divides of public service better than most. Governor Rauf Aregbesola seems to me like someone that has the same potential as Asiwaju but time will tell. Another politician that I rate and this would come as no surprise to those I’ve interacted with on Nigerian politics, is Atiku Abubakar. He seems to be equally able to mix with technocrats as much as politicians. Whilst he has not held executive office for which he was on the top ticket, his public service have been commended publicly by those whose technocratic opinion are noteworthy e.g. Mallam El-Rufai in his comments on public senate hearing held Aug 8-13, 2011 following his stint as director of BPE and the success of National  Privatisation Council.

For Atiku, I am disappointed that he hasn’t been able to shake off the corruption tag attached to him by his former boss Obasanjo. This may be due to the possibility that he is indeed corrupt. The man himself has powerful oppositions if not enemies and has been investigated severally even by the US Senate. Besides possible money laundering issues, he wasn’t found guilty of corruption. If after all these investigations, he remains un-convicted in a court of law in any jurisdiction, why does the corruption tag persist? This brings me to capitalism and politics – my main point of discourse.

Capitalism thrives best in a market that is inefficient and with at least semi-strong institutions. It is within an inefficient market that capital has its best chance of making abnormal profit or high return for a given level of risk. Semi-strong institutions such as stock exchange regulatory authorities or the judiciary are equally important so that instances of injustice can be enforced in ordinary arms length business transactions or settled out of court with minimal cost and time. It is this inefficiency and weak to semi-strong institution that makes or should make Nigeria the darling of those with real capital. If you have good capital, and understand the Nigerian market well, you’re very likely to make supernormal profit. If you then have political clout with above average understanding of technical issues, then you stand an even better chance of making uber supernormal profit. Of course with political clout comes the likelihood of being tagged as corrupt given the weakness of the system. Of course, when the market is inefficient and institutions are weak, one shouldn’t be surprised if a corrupt society is the outcome. This is a global phenomenon rather than an African let alone a Nigerian one. It may be the case that the corrupt or those with capital are ensuring that our institutions remain weak so that they can keep making supernormal profits.

What I find most interesting is that all of Atiku’s businesses are in industries where he can hardly be a monopoly, meaning his companies have to compete fairly with others in order for them to be and remain successful. This implies that industries in which his companies operate will at least have a chance of benefitting from any policy he lobbies for. For example, he has a sizeable interest in farming and related agro-services, if he lobbies for supportive policies for his farm business, the likelihood is that all businesses similar to his will benefit. This preference for business and market competitiveness can also be projected to his main business interest – INTELS – the oil services firm. Whilst Atiku does not get involved in the day to day running of his businesses, it is clear to all that he is astute at working with others ensuring that both they and he benefit from the alliance. Ultimately, the source of his wealth is known to all.

In contrast, almost all other politicians in Nigeria, we just know that they are wealthy, the source of their wealth remains a mystery. Most if not all of them can’t replicate the same level of wealth or hope to survive in the private industry, even Mr. President. In an economy where market inefficiency makes it the dream of those with capital and considering we’ve supported #OurNASS annually over the past few years with N150b, besides buying properties in Dubai and stashing money abroad, what have our politicians done with their largesse? Does how APC and PDP legislators spend their capital not suggest they don’t know how to create wealth let alone redistribute it in a manner that minimises income and wealth inequality? One of the politicians, whose source of wealth is fairly publicly alleged, is Asiwaju Tinubu. Alpha Beta Consulting (ABC), the tax consultant to the Lagos State government (LASG), has been linked to Asiwaju along with others. Alpha Beta is alleged to receive in fees 10% of all taxes it collects on behalf of LASG. When one considers LASG’s IGR, the cashcow that ABC is for Asiwaju in what is more or less a monopoly is staggering. This level of cash generation makes it especially difficult if not impossible for anyone to challenge Asiwaju’s authority or dominance in our godfatherism led politics.

Quite a few of those that are currently financing General Buhari’s candidacy are clearly wealthy and powerful but more importantly have a source of wealth that remains unclear to most Nigerians. This inevitably means they have either benefitted from the inefficiency of the Nigerian economy or have been outright corrupt. One could think ‘or both’ but seeing that very few of them have private businesses that can be claimed as their obvious source of wealth we can discount this as an option. So, should this obvious conflict of interest not make us question APC’s “change” message? If those who have vested interest in maintaining status quo are in or around power (with status quo being controlling or influencing power), will things really change? By substituting PDP for APC, will we not just be changing form rather than substance? The point is regardless of what any politician promises us, 2+2 will always be equal to 4, it can never be 5 or 6.

It is with this in mind that, were I based in Nigeria, I’d be voting Kowa and Mrs. Oluremi Sonaiya for President. I’ve read a lot of commenters turn up their noses at Kowa but I find this disappointing although I acknowledge that every one has a right to their preference. What disappoints me mostly are the reasons given as to why Kowa isn’t a viable alternative. Most voters acknowledge that APC is almost equally as handicapped as PDP given the ease with which weak and sometimes out rightly useless politicians cross-carpet. There’s been so much cross-carpeting between APC/PDP that they could almost be regarded as one. Indeed most voters acknowledge that the circulation of vested interests around Buhari is a real headwind for his presidency should he win. The other reason they espouse is the numbers game. Whilst true that PDP and APC have the advantage of numbers on the other parties, this is only the case because even for all of their glaring faults, people still choose to support them. If you can support APC/PDP with all of their issues, why is it so difficult to support Kowa who are a relatively young party but more importantly with fewer issues and handicaps than the two major parties? Their leadership team consists of ordinary Nigerians from all works of life – no benefactor or national leader – just ordinary Nigerians from various ethnicities coming together on ideology. Does this collection not reflect how Nigerians should gather for democracy’s sake?

What Kowa offers is a real break from the cycle of vested interests. The virtues that some use as basis for supporting General Buhari’s candidacy are not unique to him alone. Can Mrs. Sonaiya not pursue an anticorruption mandate? With her being free from vested interests, is she not more likely to do so? Her aptitude is clearly not in doubt, so will she not be at least equally as capable as General Buhari in grasping policy issues and pursue those that will be of benefit to majority of the populace than a cabal few? Kowa’s manifesto points on federalism, devolution of powers and making education up to SSCE compulsory for every Nigerian child particularly resonates with me. How are these not at par if not better than what PDP and APC offer? Besides the exception of Lagos (even that is only relative to very poor peers), has APC delivered the change they’re campaigning on at state level let alone federal? So on what basis should we then place confidence in their ability to deliver change? We look at Lagos but Lagos is an anomaly; it and APC benefits largely from two things: i) the fact that it was previously the national capital (pre & post colonial) and ii) the stellar governance Lateef Jakande delivered when governor.

It is obvious that PDP has lowered the standard of governance, meaning APC don’t have that much height to scale to gain followership. However, we will be doing ourselves a great disservice if we let APC get by with just the bare minimum. All of their current campaign rhetoric needs to be paired with (legislature and executive arms) their delivery in the states they currently govern. Does it add up or are they just doing needs must? Are they campaigning on record or rhetoric? The two main parties have to at least be made to sweat to get our votes and there’s no better way to do that by supporting a viable alternative in Kowa.

The respect for the rule of law has got to be sacrosanct. If you aspire to the number one office in the land, then your respect for law and Nigeria being bigger than your ambition must be evidently displayed in your utterances and more importantly how you live your life, every day.

General Buhari has to apologise to Nigeria and Nigerians for participating in or benefitting from a coup. The apology is necessary because he now has the benefit of hindsight to know that his actions were regrettable regardless of the nobility of his intentions. If any coup plotter/beneficiary was dissatisfied with the way those in government were conducting public affairs, they could have shed their uniform and contested for public office in order to conduct affairs of government in, what is in their view, the appropriate manner. Coup is never a resort let alone the last one. So can General Buhari make us aware of every step he and his comrades took within the ambit of law to bring about change of government attitude during the Shagari regime? Who did they sue to court? Did he or his comrades attempt to shed military uniform and join a political party to seek elective office? If the issue wasn’t important enough for them to shed uniform, who did they encourage from the civil populace to seek office and correct anomalies? Did they publish any article or whistleblow on the government to sensitise the nation on what was wrong and how it could be corrected or was option 1 always a coup d’état? If as it is claimed by some that Buhari was only a beneficiary, who did he prosecute for organising the coup if he respects the law as much as he claims?

On the certificate saga, the General lied on oath about the whereabouts of his certificate. Personally I don’t care about the certificate itself as to me he’s qualified by experience. What I do care about is that he swore an oath that is now proving to be untruthful. I’m not a legal expert but my understanding is that lying under oath is perjury and perjury is a criminal offence. Now that he’s aware that he may have committed perjury, how should the General handle the matter? In his statement on the issue, he said “I would have dismissed it for what it is – sheer mischief…” Are you shocked? Perjury=Mischief – from an anti corruption czar that is a presidential candidate? Or does he not appreciate the gravity of perjury? So when or if he becomes president, what aspects of the rule of law will he dismiss as mischief?

In previous presidential campaigns, General Buhari did not have the quality of people he now has at his disposal running his campaign and so makes clear what has changed. Question is, has General Buhari changed personally? If yes, to what extent? Is it extensive enough to deliver the “change” mantra?

In January, Lagos State Governor Babatunde Fashola accused Jimi Agbaje of the criminal offence of tax evasion. Ideally, we should only find this out after a good investigative journalist unearths it from court filings, but here we are. Jimi Agbaje on his part reacted with surprise at the unprovoked attack but went on to produce a document purportedly signed by the Lagos commissioner for finance commending him for fulfilling his tax obligations. Is Jimi Agbaje’s reaction commensurate to that of someone that has just been accused of a criminal offence? Now consider the profile of those involved in this matter. Governor Fashola is a SAN and Jimi Agbaje is the main opposition in the contest for the Lagos State gubernatorial election. Governor Fashola may possibly have perverted the course of justice by revealing the matter in the court of public opinion. Does the governor’s action follow the normal procedure for dealing with criminal offences against the State? Or is the procedure of dealing with tax evasion that the governor announces offender’s names at conferences? Why should Jimi Agbaje be treated any different to other evaders? Are their actions not reminiscent of that of boys that belong to the same sorority?

Politicians as a matter of course are like parrots, they say a lot and have much to say. However, we need to pay more attention to what they don’t say and be better at reading between the lines so that when a politician tells you “heads I win, tails you lose”, you’ll be able to tell when you’ve been truly buggered.

It is often said that within politics, perception is reality and the truth is negotiable. It is with respect to this saying that I must confess APC have excelled in the current presidential election campaign. The perception of good governance in Lagos especially, has gone some way into solidifying it as a reality. Asiwaju Tinubu has also benefitted immensely from this perception of Lagos and has been able to use it to cement his place as national leader of the APC. Anyone that defeats an Atiku Abubakar in politics without the power of incumbency deserves plaudit.

Asiwaju is a deft politician. However he isn’t doing anything new. He is simply copying what Pa Awolowo did in the South West when he held sway, and what Dr Azikiwe and MI Okpara did in the East and Alhaji Tafawa Balewa and Sir Ahmadu Bello did in the North (collectively our founding fathers). Whilst Pa Awolowo was able to deliver on his electoral mandate in all of the South West, Asiwaju has only been able to do so mainly in Lagos. If Pa Awolowo failed to take his relative South West success to the centre, I doubt very much Asiwaju can as APC still seem a collection of strange bedfellows nationally. The East and Northern regions currently don’t appear to have their own version of Asiwaju, perhaps this supports Asiwaju’s ambition somewhat unlike Pa Awolowo that had commendable opponents in other regions.

What is interesting to note however is that this period, when the regions had considerable power, largely coincides with when all of Nigeria was mostly productive. During the first half of the 60s, prior to oil discovery and military incursion into power, agriculture was Nigeria’s biggest sector (some 60% odd of GDP) and main earner of foreign exchange. None of the regions had a mono control of the sector as each had its own area of strength within the sector. Further, Nigeria was a major exporter of agricultural products and was particularly a global leader in palm oil, cocoa and tomatoes. What the agricultural sector did then was that it allowed each regional leader to negotiate from a position of economic strength whenever they gathered to discuss central matters. It is not entirely clear to me, and I need to read more on this, why the founding fathers wanted control of the centre considering the autonomy and true federal nature of governance at the time. But jostle for the centre they did. We all know what happened in 1966 when tensions got too heated as a result of the failure of the struggle for power at the centre.

Whilst the various killings that led to the military’s incursion into power were wrong and unfortunate, it was hardly surprising considering that the formation of Nigeria as a country was never negotiated among those that were forced to bear the name “Nigerian”. Unfortunately our founding fathers failed to communicate with and reiterate enough to those that they led, the friction that was bound to occur, the length of time it was going to take and the need for patience to be exercised by all and sundry in the negotiation of what the “Nigerian identity” and “Nigerian dream” was. Perhaps, and in hindsight, what should have been made clear by the founding fathers was that all life was equal, irrespective of the region one came from and that justice would be full no matter whose ox is gored. This communication failure perhaps contributed to why the Aguiyi-Ironsi government was lenient and perceived to be lenient on the Majors that initiated the first coup and set of killings.

On the military’s part, the decision to create several states and weaken regional autonomy and power was a good strategy – a good strategy in that it allowed them consolidate power. Good for the military but bad for Nigeria. Why was it bad? It was and has remained ever so because that original question the “Nigerian identity” and the “Nigerian dream” are still unanswered some 55 years on.

The question is can we answer this question without each region going back to its position of economic strength – a position of strength that was largely enabled due to political and economic autonomy?

We’ve spent the last 55 years failing woefully at finding the answer to this question. There’s a Nigerian adage that says “when a youngster trips, they get up and carry on walking, whereas when an adult trips, they get up, look back at what caused the trip before carrying on walking”. At 55, we can safely assume that Nigeria is an adult. So why don’t we do what adults do, look back on what is causing us to trip over ourselves time and time again.

A lot of our national strife has been caused by the jostle for control of power at the centre. The jostle for power at the centre, when cabal interest wasn’t as complex today as it was in the 60s equally stumped our founding fathers. How much so now when vested interests are so vast (local and international), complex and when we have grave national economic and security issues on our hands.

Whilst we may not be able to revert 36 states back into 12 or even the original 3 regions, we should be able to produce a federal Constitution that guarantees the complete economic autonomy of state and local governments. Further, we should be able to come up with a Constitution that politically supports the economic autonomy of the state and local governments whilst at the same time pandering and recognising our multi ethnic multi cultural society.

In my last opinion piece, I mentioned the words “constitutional minimums”. I believe through these minimums, we can deliver a Constitution that guarantees the freedom of rights of every Nigerian citizen equally, whilst also delivering a social contract that is equitable. The basis of these minimums is purely “what is yours is yours, what is mine is mine, and what is ours, we decide”. I mentioned two examples of minimums in my last piece. I’ll give another one now.

Our Constitution can establish a federal police force that focuses on federal crimes eg crimes against the nation, those that threaten national security, sovereignty or crimes in violation of international law and when we’re obliged to cooperate with international partners. The Constitution would also have a law enabling the creation of state police forces. The Constitution would provide for each state to determine how it wants its police force to be structured and administered. The Constitution will also guarantee that any Nigerian can apply to join the police force of any state so long as they are resident in that state as a minimum. Of course such persons will still need to successfully negotiate the state’s police academy. Normal discriminatory laws will apply and would be filed and tried at federal courts. The rest of our judicial system would also have constitutional minimums similar to that of the police force.

The point of this piece is we need each level of government, each ethnic grouping and each state to be free from the fear of ethno-dominance and to be able to negotiate the future of Nigeria, their future, our future from a position of relative strength and not desperation or out of inducement of a stomach nature.

Which way forward?
How we got to where we are as a nation considering not just our level of intelligence but also the number of people perceived to be intelligent is completely mind boggling. Considering the quality of our founding fathers and their level of sophistication, some of our pains could and should have been avoided but just like generations before them, we seem to be committing the same mistakes they did and careering down a ruinous path.

Our history seems to be littered with several spurned opportunities of guiding our nationhood unto a path where the collective hopes of all can be realistically implemented without the fear of ethnic and cultural cannibalism. First, our founding fathers failed to reach a mutually working arrangement following the declaration of independence. Second, we missed the opportunity during the Aburi Accord negotiation to agree on a lasting and workable federal or con-federal structure and thirdly, we failed to use the first parliamentary session of our latest dalliance with democracy to set out and agree a new democratic structure for the long term. In our rush to get rid of the military, we failed to properly consider the sustainability of our new democratic venture; a venture based on a document prepared by the very military we were running from.

Our failure to do the needful, always kicking the can into the future, has led directly to where we are today. A nation without a national identity where none of its citizen knows what “the Nigerian Dream” is. @xeenarh asked on twitter the other day what the ‘Nigerian Dream’ was and the consensus, based on a satirical but truthful comment by a responder, was “to become your own local government”.

There’s no sugar coating it, Nigeria to all intent and purposes is a failed state. The description of the Nigerian dream above is testament to that. Most social institutions, if not all, have failed. The Police are unreliable, other security forces have been compromised, the judiciary is hardly referred to settle injustice between ordinary citizens, healthcare, energy and other infrastructures are all in a dire state. Regardless of what strata of society you look at, there seems to be a clear failure of leadership and followership. Further, the country is one big giant welfare state with the civil/public (federal & state) service the biggest employers. To compound this, many states appear insolvent to the extent that payment of salaries (pension to retirees) to civil servants has become a serious challenge. All we do is consume, consume and then consume some more.

The years of military rule and its attendant abuse of society and its institutions has completely eroded any chance of the current approach working. One of the opening preambles of our Constitution states “We the people of the Federal Republic of Nigeria; having firmly and solemnly resolved, to live in unity and harmony as one indivisible and indissoluble sovereign nation under God….” Unity and harmony aren’t just words that can be declared into being. There has to be a foundation on which basis those words are laid; foundations such as understanding, mutual respect, mutual recognition, truth, sanctity of life amongst others. Without these foundations, the words in the preamble are meaningless and without life. Looking at the Nigeria around us, it is clear that these foundations are not in place otherwise it won’t be so difficult for Nigerians to sit down and have honest conversations with one another. The ‘state of origin’ issue is evidence that there is no mutual recognition as Nigerians; the initial and prolonged indifference to the insecurity and insurgency in the north east is evidence of the little value placed on the ‘sanctity of life’ and its associated freedom of rights.

Whilst there are obvious differences between us, several commonalities also exist. Our reaction to one another regarding these differences reeks of prejudices. Rather than seeking to celebrate, understand and accept, we mostly seem to discriminate against them thereby sacrificing the benefit that we should be getting from our diversity.

The point is we can’t continue like this. We have to make our diversity work for us. We have to remove the contentious issues that so perpetually plague us and make it impossible for us to have peaceful, amicable and honest conversations with each other. We need to charge our National and State assemblies with the task of delivering a new Constitution that identifies and aligns with the cultural diversity in our nation over the next parliament. We need them to deliver a comprehensive political reform that customises the democratic system of governance to our unique national characteristic and panders to our multi ethnic society.

Constitutional Reform
Our current Constitution concentrates too much power in the centre implying that the government with the most power is too far removed from the people that are most in need of its policies. This concentration of power lends the federal government to be perceived as on overlord, whose favour everyone courts. This makes capturing power at the centre a do or die affair. The distrust created by years of military rule, as well as the unresolved repercussion of the civil war has also contributed to a nation where inter-ethnic empathy is almost non-existent. Unfortunately for us, globalization has made it nigh impossible for us to work through our ethnic disharmony without the international community scrutinising and possibly interfering in what should mainly be a private affair. It is to this end that I would suggest that rather than us continuing to painfully try and force the issue of sustaining an overpowering federal government, we should self diagnose and administer a healthy dose of morphine. This can be done by stripping the centre of much of its powers and transferring majority of it to the local and state governments.

The federal government should only have powers that I would refer to as constitutional minimums. Constitutional minimums are laws that will be common to all irrespective of place of birth or location. The minimums will be the social contract among all Nigerians. For example, a constitutional minimum could be a law eradicating the ‘state of origin’ and replacing it with ‘state of residence’. Linked to this law could be a further declaration that any Nigerian can contest for any public office so long as they are locally resident. We may choose to allow each state set the length of time a Nigerian needs to be resident in that state to be eligible to contest public office or we could agree to include the length in the constitutional minimum. Another example is to make education up to WAEC level a constitutional minimum for every Nigerian child. Whether it is an Almajiri school or an anglicised one could be up to the local/state governments. The education minimum could make education up to primary level free for every child with states determining if they want to subsidise secondary school fees. Every other aspect of our social life could have a constitutional minimum that makes sure that certain services and expectations are uniform regardless of where you choose to be resident.

Of course certain aspects of government need to remain national and controlled at the centre, for example, national defence, protecting the sovereignty of the nation, sovereign debt/rating, monetary policies, customs, some infrastructures like nuclear energy, citizenship & immigration, diplomacy and defending our fundamental rights. Everything else currently in the Exclusive Legislative List should be up for negotiation in terms of transference to local and state governments.

Furthermore, I believe the resource/revenue control of the nation should be shared in this manner with complete autonomy among the different levels of government; Local Government 42.5%, State Governments 30% and Federal Government 27.5%. A related constitutional minimum could be a law stipulating that each level of government should commit at least 15% of its revenues to a reserve account, only to be accessed if very specific requirements are triggered. On resource control, the issuance of licenses for exploration of natural resources should be vested with the state government where the resource is found. We need our States to collaborate and compete on their strengths. Whilst there is the Odua Investment Company and an Arewa one, most states in Nigeria can’t afford to cooperate. They’re mostly too insolvent to cooperate. Also, we don’t have any business creating more states. There is simply no economic basis to do so.

Democratic Reform
Alongside the need for constitutional reform is democratic reform. We need to decide what form of democracy suits us. Democracy by default is a system of government that facilitates debate. Plurality of opinions is healthy to any debate and contributes towards a qualitative outcome. The current winner-takes-all electoral system doesn’t appear to be the most suitable to our democratic maturity given the deep rooted disharmony and distrust among ethnicities.

Perhaps a proportional representation electoral system is more suitable to Nigeria. In this system, the distribution of seats gained by a party will be directly related to the proportion of votes cast for that party at a general election. The system is one that ensures all votes contribute towards the result rather than a majority. For example, if during a State House of Assembly election, the APC gets 40% of votes, PDP 25%, Kowa 20% and SDP 15%, this would mean that all parties will have members in the Assembly with the numbers of members gained by each party directly related to the percentage of total votes it received. This system also reduces the scenario where a State or State Assembly will be completely dominated by a single party.

There are no ideological differences between the two main political parties (APC and PDP) – neither political nor economical. What we need to accelerate our development and deepen our democracy are parties that differ along ideological lines. The ideology could even be influenced by culture or tradition. A proportional system almost forces the issue as parties will need to come up with ways of differentiating themselves beyond “they are bad, we are good”, “they are corrupt and we are not”. What I’ve found most disappointing about the current presidential campaign is how the main opposition party and its supporters attack the incumbent party on the very same thing their party is guilty of. For example, on one hand Jimi Agbaje is too old at 57 to be governor but on the other General Buhari is not too old at 72 to be president. If APC are really an anticorruption party, the allegation that Jimi Agbaje is a tax evader should have been found out when the government charged him to court and used as a political tool.

As a party, APC is as weak as the PDP. If APC were truly pro Nigeria, they would not avoid a presidential debate. The avoidance is a good strategy for them to win the election, but definitely a bad thing for our democracy. This tells me they are happy to sacrifice Nigeria, if it means they get their way. The PDP shenanigans regarding INEC can be read in like manner.

A matured democracy is one where the interest and opinion of the minority not only matters, but is protected. A democracy where no one is left behind, where everyone willing and able gets a chance to live a life of dignity. General Buhari referring to smaller parties as ‘mushroom’ parties suggests he doesn’t quite get it yet. As a military man, one would have thought he’d appreciate the importance of the voice of the little man, defending the indefensible etc. Neither of the two main parties is offering fundamental solutions to our problems. Neither of them is asking if our form of democracy is working or if our constitution requires overhauling. If they are, for example, one of them will be seeking to close the loophole used by Speaker Tambuwal to defect from his party yet retain his Speakership. If they truly cared about Nigeria, they will as a matter of principle or ideology be pushing for or willing to sacrifice the cost of maintaining the NASS given our economic headwind.

If the main parties are not going to be pro Nigeria, we the citizen may as well argue for a democratic system that increases the number of debaters and plurality of ideas. We cannot compare ourselves to countries with more mature democracies. What we have to deal with in the open to get to their level, they dealt with centuries ago when no one was looking and when the world wasn’t so global.

So let’s not repeat the mistakes of our founding fathers, let’s stop forcing the centralist issue.

Here are my thoughts on the next presidential election and candidates;

I am pro-Nigeria, pro-democracy and pro-change. By change I mean change of party at the centre. We’ve had 16 years of a PDP government at the centre. That is long enough for any party to effect meaningful change on the polity. The PDP government during its custody did some things right and got some wrong – I won’t go into details.

Signs abound that President GEJ is fatigued. One only need look at his handling of Boko Haram, general insecurity, scandals involving cabinet members and especially the failure of his media/information team to articulate the President’s thoughts, his strategies and accomplishments. President GEJ deserves to rest, he’s done his best.

On Buhari, I am not impressed by his candidacy, primary campaign and manifesto. Truth be told, there are aspects of the manifesto that I agree with. However, all he did was copy and paste the same one he used in 2011. A few commas were moved, 2 changed to 4, 10% changed to 10-12% but other than cosmetic changes, it is practically the same document. Basically, Buhari couldn’t be bothered to try. In 2011, he developed a website to at least articulate his thoughts, on this occasion, he gave us two fingers. We weren’t worth it (if you’re one of his voltrons, feel free to disagree, it’s no less truthful). Compare that to Atiku’s campaign. Nigerians deserve your best effort every time you seek for the highest office in the country.

If one reviews Buhari objectively and against other performing public servants, it is difficult to accept that he is the best we can offer. Buhari’s insistence on himself being the only candidate capable of effecting change and an anti corruption drive is no different to what led Obasanjo to believe that he should seek a third term! Read that again, and now with less emotion (Buhari voltrons only). One would have thought, after vowing in 2011, that the General would have worked on developing a younger protégé. Further, there are as many people that recall Buhari’s tenure as Head of State with pleasure as there are those that recall it with disdain and trepidation.

So his past performance does not particularly swing perception of his record positively regardless of what his voltrons think. In fact Nigerians have soundly rejected him thrice with the 2011 rejection so emphatic that the General vowed never to contest again! In truth, it is President GEJ’s perceived ineptitude and inefficiency that is forcing people to line behind the opposition now. Unfortunately, the opposition has not given Nigeria a real choice.

Our democracy is very much in it’s infancy. For it to progress, deepen and mature, we need incumbents to lose elections from time to time. This will not only be healthier for our democracy, it is the only way to raise and/or improve the campaign bar, electoral promises, public inclusion & sensitisation and hopefully governance. Further, the raising of the governance stakes should, all other things being equal, eventually lead to the emergence of political ideologies. It is when parties begin to differentiate themselves by ideologies and campaign on such basis that the unhealthy focus on ethnicity and religion can take the back seat.

Is General Buhari better than President GEJ? Frankly and in truth, no one knows. He is different, but we don’t know if he is or will be better. So please vote for Buhari, if you must, not because he is better than President GEJ but purely because on the long run, in my opinion, having a different political party run the centre is better for our democracy. Finally, equally as important as incumbents losing elections is for the public to be fully engaged with their legislative representatives, that is the only catalyst for accelerating our democratic maturity.

@grandverve